July 11, 2018 | FIFA World Cup ongoing in Russia until July 15. Security measures continue to mitigate potential threats; disruptions possible. 

Security forces have been preparing for the event for months, and there is a significant and visible security deployment at transport hubs, match venues, and in city centers nationwide. Increased scrutiny could prompt processing delays at airports and border crossings. Additional security measures around match venues, including security cordons and traffic restrictions, as well as the increased numbers of travelers, could prompt travel disruptions in host cities. In addition, until July 25, foreign visitors traveling to World Cup host cities are required to register their visas at their accommodations within three days of arrival.

With only three of 64 matches still to be played, tensions between rival fans could intensify. Isolated incidents of football hooliganism are possible around venues where matches are played, particularly in the event of a controversial result. Although the host nation, Russia, has been knocked out, interest in the tournament remains high and consumption of alcohol during and around football matches will increase the likelihood of confrontations in bars and other public places in cities. Heightened tensions are possible during matches involving England; in addition, violent nationalist groups, such as the Russian Ultras, or football hooligan "firms," could seek to target foreign supporters at any time.

Large numbers of security forces will deploy to match venues and city centers. Their focus will be on keeping opposing supporters apart but, in the event of football-related violence, or other civil disorder, will likely react with significant force, including baton charges, tear gas, and water cannon. Anyone in the vicinity of clashes between the police, football hooligans, or protesters would face a significant physical threat. While police are extremely unlikely to target foreign nationals away from demonstrations or football-related violence, they will likely not distinguish between innocent bystanders and protesters or hooligans in the vicinity of any violence.

The likelihood of protests is currently elevated, as opposition and civil rights groups may seek to capitalize on the presence of international media to draw attention to their grievances. Demonstrations are currently prohibited in World Cup host cities until July 15. Russian security services are likely to swiftly and forcibly disperse any unauthorized gatherings, and any authorized protests if they break the terms of their permit, or if authorities deem them to be too disruptive or contravening laws that prohibit dissent or the promotion of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer (LGBTQ) "propaganda." Authorities will probably set participation limits on any authorized gatherings and permit them only in areas well outside city centers - a move that should mitigate any related disruption. Protests in central areas of World Cup host cities are currently banned. Further demonstrations denouncing government proposals to raise the retirement age are likely around the country; related events since June 28 have so far passed off without significant disruption.

Diplomatic Tensions 

Diplomatic tensions between Russia and several Western countries, including the US and UK, are currently heightened. On July 4, London reported that two further British citizens had been poisoned by a chemical agent of Russian origin in the UK, one of whom has since died. Developments around this issue, including any request by the UK government that inspectors from the independent Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons investigate the latest poisoning, could have the potential to inflame tensions between locals and British visitors in the coming days. Nevertheless, officials on both sides have so far been restrained in their reaction to the incident, which seems likely to have been connected to the poisoning of two people in Salisbury, UK, in March, rather than a separate targeted attack; the issue is, therefore, unlikely to escalate at this stage. As a precaution, however, UK nationals should maintain a low profile and avoid discussing the latest poisoning with strangers.

Despite the increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and Western countries, including the US and UK, foreign nationals who abide by the terms of their visa and do not contravene local laws are very unlikely to encounter problems with authorities during their visit.

As during many football tournaments, partisan rivalry between supporters is likely, which could translate into verbal harassment and even isolated physical attacks. Some nationalities at this time, including UK, US, Australian, Polish, and Ukrainian nationals, could face low-level abuse, but this is unlikely to translate into a physical threat. People of non-white ethnicity face a heightened threat of xenophobic and racist verbal harassment, notably those perceived to have African or Asian heritage.

In addition, FIFA 2018 World Cup organizers have warned that LGBTQ soccer fans could experience harassment, and LGBTQ individuals could also be targeted in homophobic attacks. A French football fan was seriously injured June 14 after being assaulted while waiting for a taxi in Saint Petersburg; police believe he and his companion were targeted for being members of the LGBTQ Community.

Although counterterrorism operations are believed to have severely degraded the capability of terrorist groups in Russia, the tournament represents an attractive target for international and domestic Islamist groups. The intensive security force preparations and enhanced security measures will largely mitigate the threat, though isolated attacks, including crude bombings, shootings, and knife and vehicle attacks, remain possible throughout the country. While the priority of the security forces will be on securing match venues and other sites associated with the competition, other potential targets will include shopping malls, government facilities, city centers, entertainment and transport hubs, public transportation, and international hotels.

The high-profile police response to a number of bomb hoaxes at multiple venues in Rostov early June 27 illustrates the heightened sensitivity to the terrorist threat at this time; further such incidents will likely prompt authorities to react with a seemingly disproportionate abundance of caution.

Allow additional time to clear security at international transport hubs until the end of July. Expect transport congestion and travel delays in World Cup host cities on match days. Avoid all protests as a routine security precaution and to minimize possible disruption; leave the area at the first sign of confrontations. Remain alert to the terrorist threat; report any suspicious behavior or objects to the authorities. Remain alert to the threat from petty criminals; keep valuables in a secure location when not in use. Maintain a low profile and do not display signs of nationality, wealth, political bias, or LGBTQ affiliation. Do not use unsecured public wireless networks, and do not criticize the Russian regime or constitution on social media. Make a note of your embassy's contact details in case of emergencies; contact them if apprehended by the security forces.