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Daily Intelligence Briefing

July 6, 2018 | Russia: Low-level Harassment of UK Citizens Possible due to Tensions of June 30 Poisonings

Increased diplomatic tensions between Russia and the UK are possible after the UK government claimed July 5 that two more British citizens had been poisoned by a chemical agent of Russian origin in Amesbury, UK. Although the precise circumstances of the poisoning have not been confirmed, the UK's Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DTSL) has reported that the nerve agent in question is from the Novichok family, similar to the substance used in the poisoning of three people, including a British police officer, in Salisbury, UK, in March. The latest poisoning was likely not a deliberate attack, but rather the result of contact with a residual substance abandoned after the Salisbury incident.

Summary:

British Home Secretary Sajid Javid has publicly implicated Russia in the latest incident, and the UK government has warned its citizens in Russia about possible anti-British sentiment. Developments around the issue - including any UK request that the independent Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons investigate the latest poisoning, or inflammatory rhetoric from Moscow or London - could exacerbate tensions between Russian locals and British visitors in the coming days. However, these are unlikely to escalate further than occasional isolated verbal harassment. There is no specific increased threat to UK travelers or businesses operating in Russia, and travel and visa arrangements between Russia and the UK currently remain unchanged. In addition, UK and Western nationals who abide by the terms of their visas and do not contravene local laws, are unlikely to face significant problems from the authorities.

Minor demonstrations are possible outside UK and other Western diplomatic and commercial facilities in the country. While such events are unlikely to be violent or significantly disruptive, they will have the potential to impede entry and exit to such locations and could lead to the temporary suspension of routine consular services at short notice. Public criticism could also be directed at those countries perceived as supporting the diplomatic measures against Moscow.

Diplomatic tensions between Russia and the international community increased in March after the UK accused Russia of being responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal, a former double agent who arrived in the UK in 2010 following a spy exchange. Skripal and his daughter were targeted in a chemical attack in Salisbury, UK, March 4. Several countries announced diplomatic sanctions against Russia over the incident, including the UK and other EU member states - namely Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, and Sweden - the US, Australia, Canada, Norway, Albania, Iceland, and Macedonia. Russia denies that it was involved in the chemical attack and has heavily criticized the international reaction, announcing proportionate retaliatory expulsions of diplomatic staff.

The UK government requested that the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the independent international body that ensures international compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), investigate the Salisbury incident to check Russian compliance. The OPCW concurred with the UK's assessment that the nerve agent was from the Novichok family, though did not at that time have the mandate to apportion blame. However, at the UK's request and against Russian opposition, the OPCW was granted the authority June 27 to make judgments on the perpetrators of chemical attacks in future investigations. If the OPCW is called on to make such a judgment following the Amesbury poisoning, it will likely significantly anger Russia and lead to a further deterioration in that country's international relations. In addition, wider economic and diplomatic penalties could be directed against Russia if the OPCW finds that Russia is in violation of the CWC.

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